The signs came before the statistics. Nine new municipal corporations in under 15 years. City limits being redrawn. Satellite townships on planning boards. The administrative churn told the story first. Gujarat was outgrowing its rural identity. Now the numbers are showing.
The state is on track to become predominantly urban by next year. For the first time in its history, more than half its population will live in cities.
According to the state government’s Socio-Economic Review 2025-26, Gujarat’s total population is projected to reach 7.48 crore by 2027. Of that, 3.79 crore will live in urban areas and 3.69 crore in rural ones, placing the urban share at 50.69%.
Urban planners have told a section of the media that the shift has been building for decades. In the 2011 Census, Gujarat’s urban population already stood at 42.6% — well above India’s 31.14% at the time. The projected jump of roughly eight percentage points between 2011 and 2027 outpaces the national trend over a comparable period.
Rutul Joshi, urban planner at CEPT University, said the trajectory was always expected. Gujarat was an industrial state from its formation, he noted, and industrialisation brings urbanisation. The urban populations of Ahmedabad, Vadodara, Surat and Rajkot had peaked as far back as 1980. Planners had anticipated urban population surpassing rural by 2025.
The government is now building to match that reality.
M Thennarasan, principal secretary in the urban development and urban housing department, said urbanisation is central to Gujarat’s economic future. He described cities as engines of economic growth. It’s all driven by services, education, infrastructure and planned development. Referring to a World Bank study, he noted that between 67% and 70% of Gujarat’s population could be living in urban areas by 2050.
The state has declared the current year its “urban year.” The urban development budget has been raised to Rs 33,500 crore, with focus on better facilities, satellite townships and transit-oriented growth, claimed a report.
The expansion of governance has kept pace with the expansion of cities. Gujarat had eight municipal corporations in 2011. It now has 17 — with Navsari, Vapi, Anand, Morbi and Gandhidham, among the additions.
The total area under municipal corporations has grown to 481 square kilometres from 466. Ahmedabad is set to grow further still, with plans to extend city limits to Sanand, the industrial hub on its outskirts.
The longer arc is just as striking. By 2036, the state government projects that around 55% of Gujarat’s population will live in urban areas. India, by contrast, is expected to remain predominantly rural even then with just 39.06% urban and 60.94% rural, the report added.
Gujarat’s urban population is currently growing at roughly 0.5% annually, ahead of the national rate of 0.3%. Over the next decade, the state’s urban share is projected to rise by 4.3 percentage points, against about 2.7 percentage points nationally, reflecting stronger migration to cities, industrial expansion and the spread of urban infrastructure.
Also Read: India’s 2036 Oly Dream: Ahmedabad In Focus For Urban Revamp https://www.vibesofindia.com/indias-2036-oly-dream-ahmedabad-in-focus-for-urban-revamp/
