The adage goes that in politics and in the sphere of international diplomacy, there are no permanent friends. Not too long ago, the US and China shared a frosty relationship. There was certain warmth with the US’s association with India based on a strong strategic relationship.
Times have changed. The US is reportedly navigating contradictory policies on international education. President Donald Trump has opened the doors to welcome 6,00,000 Chinese students to the US even as Indian applicants are grappling with mounting uncertainties, opaque processes, and an unprecedented spike in visa rejections.
Trump’s student visa announcement for Chinese students comes amid tense but ongoing trade negotiations with Beijing. In April, the US administration imposed a 145 per cent tariff on all Chinese goods, which China countered with a 125 per cent tariff on US exports. Both sides agreed in May—during meetings in Geneva—to pause further tariff actions.
This month, Trump signed an executive order extending the deadline for a trade agreement with China to November 10. Just last week, he threatened a new 200% tariff on Chinese-made magnets.
“We’re not going to have a problem, I don’t think, with that,” he reportedly said. “China, intelligently, went and they sort of took a monopoly of the world’s magnets. And nobody needed magnets until they convinced everybody 20 years ago, let’s all do magnets. There were many other ways that the world could have gone, but so far, it’ll take us probably a year to have them.”
The contradiction between diplomatic tone and on-the-ground experience is becoming increasingly apparent in both cases.
“We’re going to allow, it’s very important, 600,000 students,” Trump was quoted as saying from the Oval Office. “We’re going to get along with China. But it’s a different relationship that we have now with China.”
It’s reported that around 2,70,000 Chinese students are studying in the United States.
The announcement comes after months of mixed signals from his administration, particularly a May statement from Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
“Under President Trump’s leadership, the US State Department will work with the Department of Homeland Security to aggressively revoke visas for Chinese students, including those with connections to the Chinese Communist Party or studying in critical fields,” Rubio had said. “We will also revise visa criteria to enhance scrutiny of all future visa applications from the People’s Republic of China and Hong Kong.”
“Under President Trump’s leadership, the US State Department will work with the Department of Homeland Security to aggressively revoke visas for Chinese students, including those with connections to the Chinese Communist Party or studying in critical fields,” Rubio had said. “We will also revise visa criteria to enhance scrutiny of all future visa applications from the People’s Republic of China and Hong Kong.”
Trump appeared to reverse course in June, saying he’s “always been in favour” of allowing Chinese students into the US.
Meanwhile, Indian students remain in limbo. Despite assurances from US authorities that visa slots would be released in phases, a lack of transparency has left them disillusioned.
There is speculation that the openings may have been part of system testing.
Many Indian students who applied as early as March and secured interview dates are now seeing unusually high rejection rates. Section 214(b) of the US Immigration and Nationality Act often emerges in rejection letters.
Reports revealed that the US turned down 41 per cent of student visa applications between 2023 and 2024. That is the highest rate in a decade.
According to the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA), over 11.6 lakh Indian students were enrolled in higher education institutions abroad as of January 1, 2024, with Europe increasingly emerging as an alternative.
This year, there has been a 40 per cent drop in the number of students applying for the US from Gujarat alone. Australia, according to reports, is now the first alternative followed by the UK for students of Gujarat.
Two years ago, India had surpassed China to become the leading source of international students to the US, sending more than 3.3 lakh students.
The disconnect between Washington and New Delhi is stark. It casts a long shadow over what has been a deepening partnership in the past but not anymore.
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