If stars align and the exit polls are anything to go by, the NDA should breach the Bihar fortress.
Exit polls from the state’s two-phase assembly elections suggest the ruling alliance should blow the victory bugle.
Most surveys indicate an emphatic win. Only one hints at a tight battle.
As a report mentions, the NDA, consisting of the Janata Dal (United) and the Bharatiya Janata Party, sought re-election. It relied on Nitish Kumar’s 20-year rule in the state and the 11-year rule of PM Modi at the Centre.
The opposition Mahagathbandhan, made up of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Congress, campaigned on anti-incumbency, misgovernance, and job promises. The elections were held on 6 and 11 November.
Exit polls have often been inaccurate in the past. In 2015 and 2020, they differed significantly from actual results. The Bihar Elections 2025 results will be known after vote counting on 14 November.
Exit polls are based on voter feedback collected after polling ends. Predictions are made before official results.
Poll Diary gave the NDA the highest seat projection at 184-209. Axis My India gave the lowest, at 121-141 seats.
For the Mahagathbandhan, Axis My India projected the highest at 98-118 seats. Poll Diary gave the lowest at 32-49.
Most polls indicate an NDA victory. This suggests the ruling alliance may return to power, despite over two decades of anti-incumbency under Nitish Kumar.
Regionally, the NDA is doing well across Bihar. The exception is Seemanchal, which is predominantly Muslim.
Despite the NDA leading in polls, opposition leader Tejashwi Yadav is the preferred Chief Minister in several surveys. Axis My India reports 34% favor him, versus 22% for Nitish Kumar.
Vote-share predictions show a narrow gap in some polls. Axis My India expects the NDA to win around 43% of votes. The Mahagathbandhan is forecasted at around 41%. This suggests a closely contested scenario, despite NDA’s seat advantage.
Debutant Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) was seen as a potential ‘king maker’. However, multiple exit polls predict it will win between 0 and 5 seats.
BOX
Here is what the 11 exit polls revealed (Source Mint):
Dainik Bhaskar: NDA: 145–160 seats, MGB: 73–91, Others: 5–10
Polstrat: NDA: 133–148, MGB: 87–102, Others: 3–5
Matrize: NDA: 147–167, MGB: 70–90, JSP: 5, Others: 10
Vote Vibe: NDA: 125-145, MGB: 95-115 JSP: 0-2 Others:1-3
People’s Pulse: NDA: 133–159, MGB: 75–101, JSP: 0–5, Others: 2-8
People’s Insight: NDA: 133-148, MGB: 87-102, JSP: 0-2, Others:3-6
DVC Research polls survey: NDA: 137-152, MGB: 83-98, JSP: 2-4.
Axis My India: NDA: 121-141, MGB: 98-118, JSP: 0-2
Today’s Chanakya: NDA: 148-178; MGB: 66-89; JSP: 0
Poll Diary: NDA: 184- 209; MGB: 32-49, Others: 1-5
JVC: NDA: 135- 150; MGB: 88-103, Others: 3-7
Also Read: The Fractured First Family Of Bihar And Its’ Fault Lines https://www.vibesofindia.com/the-lalu-prasad-yadav-family-and-their-widening-differences/
