Uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz continues to overshadow the fragile US-Iran ceasefire, with Gulf states concerned that any deal could leave Tehran with strategic leverage over a critical global energy route.
The region saw a brief pause in tensions after Washington and Tehran agreed to a two-week truce, halting weeks of escalating attacks. The agreement came just before a US deadline for Iran to reopen the strait, which carries about 20 percent of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas. Iran had earlier brought traffic there close to a standstill in response to US-Israeli strikes.
Negotiations set to begin in Islamabad have raised fears that the US could accept terms allowing Iran some level of control over the waterway. Iranian proposals reportedly include maintaining oversight of the strait, with ship movements coordinated through its military.
Gulf Cooperation Council countries have welcomed the ceasefire but insist any agreement must ensure full and permanent freedom of navigation. Analysts warn that even limited Iranian leverage could leave Gulf economies vulnerable to disruption and sustained strategic pressure.
Concerns have deepened after suggestions of a possible US-Iran arrangement involving tolls in the strait, though this was later downplayed by the White House.
Despite US claims of significantly weakening Iran’s military capabilities, Tehran has continued to demonstrate its ability to strike across the region, including energy infrastructure. Even after the ceasefire announcement, missile and drone attacks were reported in several Gulf countries.
Gulf states have so far avoided direct involvement in the conflict but have warned that their restraint has limits. A proposed UN Security Council resolution backed by Gulf nations to secure the strait failed after being vetoed by Russia and China.
For the Gulf, prolonged instability threatens economic security and long-term ambitions as a global hub for trade and investment. Officials have indicated that if diplomacy fails to guarantee free navigation, they may be forced to take a more assertive stance.
A key sticking point remains Iran’s nuclear programme. While Tehran has signalled willingness to discuss limits, it continues to reject full dismantlement, leaving a major gap as talks approach.
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