Canada has announced its latest Immigration Levels Plan for 2026–2028, maintaining its intake of permanent residents at 3.8 lakh annually in the next three years.
It’s also firm on imposing steep cuts on temporary residents, particularly international students.
The plan signals what officials describe as a “balanced approach” to immigration. It’s aimed at steadying long-term migration while tightening temporary entry channels.
Officials in the know revealed to a national daily that the policy continues the government’s shift towards sustainability in immigration.
They noted that the plan maintains the cap on permanent residents but introduces aggressive reductions in the temporary resident category, which includes both students and foreign workers.
A Bid to ‘Stabilise’ Immigration Flows
According to the new plan, the government aims to reduce temporary resident volumes to under five per cent of Canada’s population by the end of 2027. Officials said this will be achieved through a combination of program limits, natural departures, and stricter eligibility measures. Canada’s population currently stands at roughly 415 lakh.
The national newspaper, in an extensive report, has cited authorities as saying that the plan should align new arrivals with the planned departure of international students and temporary workers whose permits expire in 2025 and 2026.
They also confirmed ongoing collaboration with provinces and territories to prioritise newcomers in fields addressing workforce gaps, especially in rural areas.
International Students Face Sharpest Reductions
The most striking change in the new plan concerns international student admissions, which have been cut nearly in half. The latest projections cap student permits at 1.55 lakh in 2026 and 1.50 lakh in 2027, compared to the 3.05 lakh projected for both years in the previous plan, the report outlined.
Analysts observed that the scale of reduction has caught many by surprise. Canada’s international student population peaked at nearly 10 lakh by December 2023, prompting the government to impose an intake cap for 2024, expected to bring approvals down to 2.6 lakh—a 35% decline from the prior year.
Industry observers remarked that this trend reflects a deliberate correction after years of soaring numbers. They said officials appear to view the student sector as the “least disruptive” area for cuts, given Canada’s dependence on temporary workers and the humanitarian complexities in other temporary resident categories.
Pressure On Education Sector
Experts said that while the new targets mirror anticipated approval levels for 2025, the lower ceiling will have a cascading impact on Canadian colleges and universities. It will restrict the number of offers institutions can extend. That could put additional strain on the international education sector, already facing tightened visa scrutiny.
Analysts believe the change could impact Indian students. In recent times, they faced high rejection rates in the range of 50%.
If application volumes remain strong, refusal rates could reach 80%.
Quality Over Quantity
In a parallel move, Ottawa is pushing ahead with the Trusted Institutions Framework, announced in mid-2023 to strengthen oversight in international education. Institutions with strong student-support systems, transparent finances, and clean compliance records will be recognised as “trusted” and benefit from faster visa processing.
Experts advised Indian students to focus on trusted institutions with strong compliance and support systems. They said this would help strengthen their chances for both study permits and future permanent residency.
They also urged younger applicants to plan carefully. Students straight out of high school should first complete their bachelor’s degrees and gain some work experience. This, experts said, would improve their long-term prospects of settling in Canada.
Marginal Adjustments
The plan also outlines targets for temporary foreign workers (TFWs)—2.30 lakh for 2026, followed by 2.20 lakh each for 2027 and 2028. Last year’s projection had placed these figures at 2.10 lakh and 2.37 lakh, respectively.
The general sentiment is that a small drop in work permit targets could tighten opportunities for temporary foreign workers. It may also affect spousal work permit holders and intra-company transferees. Higher refusal rates are expected across these categories.
They pointed to one positive development. A new permanent residency pathway is set to open for 33,000 workers over the next two years. This is likely to focus on high-demand fields such as healthcare, construction, and Francophone communities.
This year’s plan also brings a notable change. It no longer separates figures for the Temporary Foreign Workers Program (TFWP) and the International Mobility Program (IMP). The IMP includes post-graduation and intra-company work permits.
Observers believe the government may favour IMP streams. These are seen as less prone to fraud and easier to manage administratively.
The specifics are still being kept under wraps. But officials intimated that a faster pathway for qualified H-1B workers may soon be introduced.
This move, they claim, sends a firm message to the global talent pool, reiterating Canada’s intention to draw in top technologists and innovators to increase long-term productivity and national competitiveness.
Stability Amid Dependency
The plan aims to keep the country attractive to skilled migrants while tightening temporary entries.
The broader goal, according to industry observers, is to bring stability back into the system.
Yet it’s undeniable that Canada continues to depend on foreign workers to meet key labour demands across vital sectors.
Also Read: 75% Drop in Canada-Bound Students As Immigration Policy Changes https://www.vibesofindia.com/75-drop-in-canada-bound-students-as-immigration-policy-changes/
