A sharp contraction in legal immigration to the US is looming. Under Donald Trump’s administration, the numbers could plunge steeply. A recent Forbes report, alluded to by a financial web portal, warns of a decline ranging from 33% to 50% over four years. The central mechanism is simple. Make it far harder for Americans to reunite with their closest family members in the US.
New research suggests the damage may run deeper. Over time, millions of families could be affected.
Since returning to power, Trump officials have introduced a series of measures that block US citizens and employers from legally sponsoring immigrants. These actions could override long-standing immigration rules passed by Congress, unless the courts intervene.
According to a new analysis by the National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP), “The Trump administration’s policies will reduce legal immigration to the United States by an estimated 33% to 50%, or by 1.5 million to 2.4 million legal immigrants, by the end of Donald Trump’s four-year term.”
In 2023, roughly 1.17 million people legally moved to the US and received green cards, the news report has highlighted. If existing trends had continued, close to 4.7 million people would have obtained green cards over four years. NFAP now estimates that new Trump administration rules will prevent between 1.5 million and 2.4 million people from receiving green cards during Trump’s four-year term. Legal immigration would fall by one-third to one-half, the report notes.
These figures do not account for up to 2.7 million people who were already living legally in the US when Trump returned to office and are now facing uncertainty. The administration has terminated Temporary Protected Status for hundreds of thousands of immigrants.
Further restrictions are also on the horizon. Proposed changes could sharply limit international students’ ability to work after graduation through OPT and STEM OPT.
Under current law, a US citizen can sponsor a spouse, children under 21, and parents as immediate relatives. Green card holders can sponsor spouses and children as well. Nearly 48% of all legal immigration comes through the immediate relatives category alone.
This is precisely why this group is being targeted. Reducing immigration is most effective here. There is no numerical cap on immediate relatives. Every denial directly reduces admissions.
Trump’s immigration agenda is being driven by White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller, the chief architect of these policies. The administration is relying on two primary tools to block Americans from sponsoring close family members.
First, it has imposed country-based entry bans. Second, it is enforcing a stricter interpretation of “public charge”, allowing officials to deny visas if they believe an applicant may rely on public benefits in the future. NFAP estimates that as a result: “Between 941,625 and 1,654,770 fewer Immediate Relatives of US Citizens will gain green cards during the Trump administration.”
The consequences are immediate, the portal has reported. Hundreds of thousands of Americans may be unable to live in the US with a spouse, child, or parent. A decisive shift occurred on December 16, when the administration issued a proclamation blocking immigrants, including immediate relatives of US citizens, from 39 countries. That represents roughly 20% of the world’s nations.
This single move could cut immigration by as many as 76,000 people per year.
Also Read: US Congressman Calls For Total Immigration Pause, Cites Visa Abuse, Welfare Misuse https://www.vibesofindia.com/us-congressman-calls-for-total-immigration-pause-cites-visa-abuse-welfare-misuse/
