Gujarat is set to witness another spell of intense monsoon weather, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) warning of heavy to very heavy rainfall across parts of the state. Some isolated areas could receive extremely heavy rain, raising concerns about waterlogging and flash flooding in vulnerable regions.
The warning comes as the monsoon shows a sharp contrast across India. While Gujarat and parts of western and central India are expected to receive intense rainfall, much of South Peninsular India is likely to see subdued rain activity over the next seven days.
Heavy Rain Alert Across Gujarat
According to the weather warning, Gujarat Region and Madhya Maharashtra may experience heavy to very heavy rainfall, with extremely heavy rain possible in isolated locations.
The Gujarati newspaper report also highlights the possibility of significant rainfall across Gujarat, with rain expected in around 150 talukas. More than 1 inch of rain could be recorded in over 40 talukas, while some areas may receive rainfall exceeding 5 inches.
The situation is particularly important for South Gujarat, where intense rainfall has already been recorded. Pardi in Valsad district received 21 cm of rain in the 24 hours ending at 8:30 am on July 21, making it one of the most heavily affected locations.
What Does ‘Extremely Heavy Rainfall’ Mean?
The IMD uses specific rainfall measurements to classify the intensity of rain.
Heavy rainfall: 64.5 mm to 115.5 mm in 24 hours
Very heavy rainfall: 115.6 mm to 204.4 mm in 24 hours
Extremely heavy rainfall: More than 204.4 mm, or over 20 cm, in 24 hours
This means that when the IMD issues an extremely heavy rainfall warning, a location could receive more than 20 cm of rain in just one day.
The recent rainfall in Pardi shows how quickly such conditions can develop in parts of South Gujarat.
South Gujarat Among the Main Rainfall Zones
The newspaper report points to several areas that could see significant rainfall. Valsad, Navsari and Surat are among the districts expected to remain under close watch as the rain intensifies.
In Navsari, rainfall has already been reported across several areas, while parts of Valsad and Surat have also received substantial showers. Some locations in South Gujarat recorded rainfall of several inches, with Pardi receiving the highest reported rainfall of 21 cm.
The weather system is expected to remain active over the region, with the IMD warning that the rain spell could continue for the next few days.
Other Parts of India Also Face Heavy Rain
The rainfall is not limited to Gujarat. The IMD has predicted isolated very heavy rain over Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Punjab, East Rajasthan, East and West Madhya Pradesh, and Konkan and Goa.
Heavy rain is also expected in parts of Uttarakhand, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Bihar and Odisha.
The northeastern states, including Assam, Meghalaya and the Nagaland-Manipur-Mizoram-Tripura region, are also likely to remain wet.
South India Likely to Remain Relatively Dry
In contrast, the monsoon is expected to remain relatively weak over much of South Peninsular India.
Only isolated to scattered rainfall is forecast over Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Tamil Nadu, Telangana and interior Karnataka through July 27.
However, Coastal Karnataka and Kerala are expected to continue receiving rain. The Western Ghats help force moisture-filled winds upward, leading to rainfall in these areas.
For the rest of the southern peninsula, the weather is expected to be more about gusty winds than widespread rain.
Delhi May See Light to Moderate Rain
Delhi is also expected to remain generally cloudy, with the possibility of light rain at many places and moderate rain in a few areas.
The first spell could occur from the early morning to noon, accompanied by thunderstorms, lightning and winds of around 20 to 30 kmph, gusting up to 40 kmph.
Another spell of rain may occur between the evening and night.
The maximum temperature is expected to remain between 31 and 33 degrees Celsius, while the minimum could stay between 24 and 26 degrees Celsius, with both temperatures likely to remain below normal.
Flash Flood Risk in Parts of North India
The IMD’s flash flood guidance has identified a low to moderate risk in several areas, particularly where the ground is already saturated from earlier rainfall.
The risk covers parts of Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh, along with districts of Himachal Pradesh such as Chamba, Kangra, Kullu, Shimla and Kinnaur.
In Uttarakhand, districts including Dehradun, Uttarkashi, Chamoli and Pithoragarh are also under watch.
When the soil is already soaked, fresh rainwater cannot easily enter the ground. Instead, it flows rapidly over the surface and down slopes, increasing the risk of flash flooding.
Why Is Rainfall So Uneven Across India?
The current weather pattern is linked to the position of the monsoon system over the country.
The monsoon trough, a long zone of low pressure that helps guide rainfall, is currently close to its normal position. Several upper-air cyclonic circulations are also helping pull moisture into the atmosphere and push it upwards, leading to rainfall over northern and western parts of the country.
These systems are positioned over areas including Haryana, northeast Madhya Pradesh, southwest Rajasthan, north Chhattisgarh and the west-central Bay of Bengal.
A trough connecting the Bay of Bengal circulation with the northeast Arabian Sea is also helping bring moisture into the north and west. This has contributed to the sharp difference between the wet conditions in parts of western and central India and the relatively dry weather across much of the southern peninsula.
A Changing Monsoon Pattern
The uneven distribution of rainfall is part of a broader monsoon pattern in which periods of intense rainfall can be followed by quieter spells.
Research cited in the information provided suggests that extreme rainfall events over central India have increased while moderate rainfall has declined. Another study found that widespread extreme rainfall events over central India increased significantly between 1950 and 2015, with a link to a warming Arabian Sea.
This means that rainfall is increasingly arriving in shorter but more intense bursts, rather than being spread evenly over longer periods.
Fishermen Advised to Stay Away From Rough Seas
With the weather remaining unsettled, fishermen have been advised to avoid venturing into the sea.
The warning applies to waters off Gujarat and north Maharashtra until July 24, while fishermen along the Andhra Pradesh coast have been advised to stay away from the sea until July 22.
With heavy rain expected in Gujarat and neighbouring regions, authorities and residents in vulnerable areas will need to remain alert to the possibility of waterlogging, flooding and rapidly rising water levels as the monsoon continues to remain active.
Also Read: Flamingos Stay, Not Fly: GPS Study Challenges Migration Myth https://www.vibesofindia.com/gujarat-flamingos-kutch-gps-study-migration/
