Fresh political winds appear to be blowing across Gujarat, with a new 2026 survey pointing to a reshaped electoral battlefield.
While the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) continues to hold the top spot, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is emerging as its main challenger, pushing Congress further to the margins. The findings hint that the next Assembly election could increasingly resemble a straight fight between BJP and AAP, particularly in cities and politically sensitive regions.
The “Pulse of Gujarat 2026” survey, conducted by WeePreside in collaboration with CIF, suggests a steady rise in AAP’s footprint across the state. According to the data, BJP remains ahead with a projected vote share of around 49.5 percent.
However, the key shift lies in the opposition space. Congress, once the principal rival, appears to be losing relevance as AAP consolidates its position as the second pole in Gujarat politics.
Survey estimates put AAP’s statewide vote share at 24.8 percent, ahead of Congress at 17.3 percent. This marks a significant moment, as it indicates that AAP has overtaken Congress in voter preference, at least at this stage. The numbers suggest a reordering of opposition politics, with AAP now occupying the space Congress once dominated.
A look at past elections underscores how rapidly this transformation has unfolded. Congress secured close to 40 percent of the vote in 2017, only to see its share drop to about 27 percent in the 2022 Assembly polls. The latest survey points to another sharp fall of roughly 10 percentage points since then, highlighting what observers describe as a sustained erosion of Congress’s base in the state.
AAP’s rise, meanwhile, has been swift. Contesting Gujarat Assembly elections for the first time in 2022, the party polled nearly 13 percent of the vote. The current estimates suggest that its support has almost doubled within three years. Analysts interpret this surge as evidence that a sizeable portion of Congress’s traditional voters may be gravitating towards AAP, altering the balance within the opposition camp.
Region-wise data reinforces this trend. In Saurashtra-Kutch, where some weakening of BJP support has been discussed in recent years, AAP appears to be strengthening its foothold. In North and Central Gujarat, BJP continues to dominate, but AAP is outpacing Congress in several urban pockets. Cities and metropolitan areas, in particular, show a clear preference shift, with respondents increasingly identifying AAP as the primary alternative to BJP rather than a secondary option.
According to media reports, developments on the ground seem to echo these findings. A recent AAP workers’ gathering in Ahmedabad, addressed by national convenor Arvind Kejriwal, added momentum to discussions about a new opposition axis in Gujarat. At the event, Kejriwal asserted, “Now the fear has gone out of the minds of the people of Gujarat.” Striking a confident tone about the future, he added, “In 2027, power is going to change in Gujarat, and the Aam Aadmi Party will bring about that change in government.”
Kejriwal also touched upon the issue of arrests of party leaders and supporters, urging resilience. “If more people are sent to jail, there is no need to be afraid. This is a fight against injustice, and the public will respond to it,” he told party workers. AAP leaders argue that the 2027 election will test whether voters resonate with this narrative of resistance and change.
Reacting to the survey, Gujarat AAP unit president Isudan Ghadvi told Vibes of India that public frustration with BJP is growing, while Congress no longer appears to be a viable option. “Though AAP is placed at second position, we are confident that in the manner in which we are reaching out to the masses, our party would be leading party by the time 2027 elections take place,” he said.
Congress, however, has dismissed the conclusions. Party spokesperson Hiren Banker maintained that Gujarat continues to witness two-party politics and insisted that Congress remains number two. He alleged that AAP lacks ideology and becomes active only around election time.
Political analyst Hemant Shah also questioned the survey’s credibility. He pointed out that Congress rallies continue to draw crowds comparable to those of AAP. Shah said it was important to know where the survey was conducted, when it was carried out and how many people participated, adding that “perhaps the survey could have been floated by the BJP.” He further argued that such narratives underline the need for Congress and AAP to come together to challenge BJP’s dominance.
Despite differing interpretations, the survey and recent political activity suggest one clear takeaway: while BJP remains firmly in control, Gujarat’s opposition landscape is undergoing a churn, with AAP increasingly positioning itself as the principal challenger ahead of the 2027 Assembly election.
Also Read: Mass Exodus From AAP, BJP In Gujarat As Hundreds Join Congress https://www.vibesofindia.com/mass-exodus-from-aap-bjp-in-gujarat-as-hundreds-join-congress/
