A survey done by Times Now -Navbharat-Veto between December 16-30, on a sample size of 21480 predicts BJP government in Uttar Pradesh retaining the power in the upcoming assembly elections. The survey predict the BJP alliance win in the range of 230-249 which is 75 seats less than what it won in 2017 assembly elections. BJP alliance won 324 seats in previous elections.
The battle for Uttar Pradesh is extremely significant for the ruling BJP at Centre and for the nation as such as it will be a precursor to the Loksabha elections in 2024.
The alliance led by SP is expected to win seats in the range of 137-152 as per the survey. However, it is predicted that there will be remarkable improvement in SP alliance’ vote share at 34.4%. BJP is predicted to have vote share of 38.6%which will be 3% less than what it secured in previous elections.
BJP and SP appear to be eating aways BSP vote share which is predicted to have 14.1% from it’s previous figure 22.2%. In this elections, the survey predicts BSP to win seats in the range of 9-14. Survey continues pessimistic outlook for Congress, which is predicted to remain contained within single digit.
If the predictions turn out to be accurate, Yogi Adityanath’s government will be the first government in last 37 years to win two consecutive terms. The survey indicated that the “law and order” in the present government is seen as the strongest point. The Kashi and Mathura issues also seem to influence the voters, as per the survey.