For millions of people across India, the arrival of the southwest monsoon is more than just a weather event. It brings relief from scorching summer temperatures, fills reservoirs, supports agriculture, and provides the water that many communities depend on throughout the year.
This year, the monsoon began on a promising note. It advanced quickly into several parts of the country earlier than expected, raising hopes for a strong rainy season. However, after that initial progress, the monsoon appears to have hit an unexpected roadblock.
For nearly two weeks, its advance has almost completely stalled. Large parts of the country that were expecting rainfall are still waiting, temperatures remain high, and the seasonal rainfall deficit has continued to grow. The prolonged pause has become a matter of concern for farmers, water managers, and weather experts alike.
Why Has the Monsoon Stopped Advancing?
The biggest reason behind the slowdown has been the repeated intrusion of dry air over the Indian subcontinent.
Normally, the monsoon depends on warm, moisture-filled air to create clouds and rainfall. However, throughout the first half of June, dry air repeatedly moved into western and central India. This dry air acted like a barrier, preventing clouds from developing and reducing rainfall activity across many regions.
As a result, rainfall became scattered and weak, monsoon circulation lost strength, temperatures increased across several states, and the overall progress of the monsoon came to a halt. In simple terms, the atmosphere did not have enough moisture to support widespread rain.
The Good News: Conditions Are Beginning to Improve
Meteorologists are now seeing signs that the situation may soon change. The dry air that has been blocking the monsoon is gradually weakening. Moisture levels are increasing along India’s west coast, creating a more favourable environment for rain-bearing clouds to develop.
Weather models suggest that this improvement could become much more noticeable from June 20 onwards. If these conditions continue to strengthen, rainfall activity is expected to increase significantly over the coming days.
The Somali Jet: The Monsoon’s Powerful Engine
Another important factor influencing the monsoon is a weather system known as the Somali Jet. The Somali Jet is a strong low-level wind current that flows along the eastern coast of Africa before crossing the Arabian Sea and moving towards India. It carries enormous amounts of moisture from the ocean and acts like a giant conveyor belt supplying water to the Indian monsoon.
During a healthy monsoon season, this jet helps bring widespread rainfall to western India and eventually supports rain over central and northern regions as well.
What Happened This Year?
This year, the Somali Jet has been unusually weak. Because of its reduced strength, less moisture was transported into India, rain-bearing systems remained weak, rainfall deficits developed across several states and the monsoon’s overall advance slowed dramatically. In simple words, the monsoon’s main engine has been operating below capacity.
Stronger Winds May Bring More Rain
Forecast models now indicate that the Somali Jet could strengthen significantly around June 20. If this happens, stronger winds over the Arabian Sea will transport much larger amounts of moisture towards India. States expected to benefit include, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Karnataka, Goa and parts of Madhya Pradesh.
An increase in moisture inflow would create better conditions for widespread rainfall and help the monsoon move forward once again.
Another Key Factor: Cross-Equatorial Winds
Meteorologists are also closely monitoring the cross-equatorial flow.
These are winds that travel from the Southern Hemisphere across the equator into the Indian Ocean and eventually towards the Indian mainland. These winds play a crucial role because they continuously supply warm, moisture-rich air to the monsoon system. Current forecasts suggest that these winds will also strengthen in the coming days.
A stronger cross-equatorial flow means, more moisture reaching India, better cloud formation, increased rainfall activity, stronger monsoon circulation.
What Could Happen Next?
If all the expected atmospheric changes occur together, the monsoon could quickly regain its lost momentum. The three most important developments being watched are:
- Weakening of dry air intrusion.
- Strengthening of the Somali Jet.
- Increase in cross-equatorial moisture flow.
Together, these factors could revive the monsoon from this weekend onwards. Weather experts believe the monsoon may then rapidly advance across, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Parts of Rajasthan, and Northern India in the following phase.
Why This Matters
The next few days are extremely important for India. A continued delay in rainfall could increase pressure on agriculture, reservoirs, groundwater supplies, and drinking water availability in many regions. Farmers in several states are already waiting for sufficient rainfall to begin sowing operations.
However, if the forecasted strengthening of monsoon conditions materialises, India could see a significant revival of rainfall activity before the end of June.
For now, all eyes are on the Arabian Sea and the evolving weather patterns. After nearly two weeks of stagnation, the southwest monsoon finally appears to be preparing for its next major push across the country.
Also Read: Monsoon Takes A Pause: India Records 64% Rainfall Deficit Despite Seasonal Advance https://www.vibesofindia.com/india-monsoon-pause-64-percent-rainfall-deficit-june-2026/
