India’s population story is changing. With the country’s fertility rate falling below the replacement level, a recent working paper has questioned whether population control should continue to be treated as a goal of government policy.
The paper, “The Ghost of Population Past,” says India now needs to adjust its family-planning approach to reflect this demographic change. It has been authored by Sanjeev Sanyal, Member of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM), along with Aakanksha Arora, Director, EAC-PM, and Virat Singh, Consultant, EAC-PM.
According to the paper, India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is 1.9, below the replacement-fertility level. The figure drops to 1.6 when Bihar and Uttar Pradesh are excluded, which the authors compare with fertility rates of 1.5 in Northern Europe and 1.6 in the United States. The authors argue that these figures point to a demographic situation that is very different from the one that shaped India’s earlier population-control policies.
Why the paper is calling for a change
The working paper warns that fertility decline can become difficult to reverse once it passes a certain level and starts influencing social norms and family decisions.
It says further efforts to bring down fertility could increase the risk of India entering a low-fertility trap. The paper therefore argues that there is no need to continue treating a reduction in TFR as a policy objective. Instead, it calls for family planning to be approached around health, child spacing and individual choice, rather than population reduction.
Changes proposed to existing incentives
One of the paper’s key recommendations is to withdraw incentives associated with sterilisation and other population-control measures. It proposes ending sterilisation-linked incentive payments, including certain direct benefit transfers, compensation for wage loss and enhanced incentives provided to acceptors and service providers.
The paper also recommends removing motivational and incentive payments linked to terminal contraceptive methods, as well as the ASHA incentive associated with limiting couples to two children.
Population-control messaging also questioned
The recommendations extend beyond financial incentives. The paper calls for discontinuing family-planning-related awards, along with World Population Day celebrations and Vasectomy Fortnight observances when they promote population-control objectives.
It also proposes removing references to population control, fertility reduction and population stabilisation from national and state policy frameworks and government outputs.
At the same time, the paper makes clear that its argument is not against family planning itself. It supports family planning when it is undertaken for health reasons, child spacing or personal preference.
The broader argument is that, as India’s fertility rate has fallen, the country’s family-planning policy may need to move away from reducing population growth and respond instead to the demographic conditions now emerging.
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