The attack on tourists in Kashmir has shell-shocked the country, but analysts predict that this could ultimately degenerate into a conflict with China. It all began with the attack on a train in Balochistan, north of the proposed Chinese-funded Gwadar port. The attack was carried out by Baloch rebels—who may have escaped to neighbouring Iran or Afghan borders—but the blame could unfairly be placed on Indian agencies, who would be seen as fostering trouble in Balochistan.
China is seeking a pathway to the port through a long highway (parts of China that are far from the sea). This port will give China access to the Middle East, African markets, and even European countries. The pathway down from China passes through parts of Kashmir, not too far from areas of northern Kashmir like Ladakh, which saw conflict with China in the last few years.
To complicate matters, the current army chief of Pakistan, Asim Munir, a refugee from India and son of a cleric, sees Muslims and Hindus as totally divergent. Munir, though born only in 1968, is totally anti-Indian and anti-Hindu. His family migrated from Jalandhar, the same place from which the family of General Zia-ul-Haq, who was also the son of a cleric, migrated.
Who is more conservative remains to be seen, but both of them think—or thought—lowly of India. The Chinese now plan to ride piggyback on the Pakistanis to negotiate through the area. This is especially true of Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, which has been illegally ceded to the Chinese.
On the other side is Bangladesh, which was once East Pakistan. Bangladesh is also falling under the grip of the Chinese. The Chinese want to control access to the seas around Bangladesh and have programs to control Chittagong port and even the smaller Mongla port on the Bay of Bengal. Bangladesh is ready to grant access but wants Pakistan to apologize first for killing millions of Bangladeshis in East Pakistan in the early 1970s.
The Pakistani army chief, who calls the shots in his country, says that non-Hindu genes could have helped the country. Meanwhile, the Bangladeshi President is ready to help the Chinese by facilitating their entry into India through the northeast—where China had attacked India in 1962 and occupied parts of the northeast. Bangladesh, it seems, is ready to cut the chicken’s neck in the northeast, which would allow easier access for the Chinese.
A massive concern for the Chinese has been the Dalai Lama. The Chinese want a China-bred Dalai Lama to succeed the present Dalai Lama, who, besides being a Nobel Prize winner, is very fair-minded. China currently rules over Tibet and wants to keep it that way. In fact, China would like to gobble Tibet and wants the Tibetans to formally submit to their will.
Once, India reigned over Lhasa and had diplomatic rights over the place but later gave it up. Mao Zedong, once the supreme ruler of China, thought that Tibet was an integral part of China. The same thinking is held by the present Chinese leader, Xi Jinping. Jinping has visited India twice in recent years—once in Chennai and once in Ahmedabad, where he was feted by Modi. Tibet is seen to have unfairly come under Indian influence in 1914 through a treaty drawn up in British India.
Lhasa was the capital of Tibet, and diplomatic relations were through British India. Mao resented this thoroughly because he believed that Tibet was Chinese property. During Nehru’s time, in a wrong decision, Lhasa was given up—a decision Nehru would later lament, but by then it was too late. So, China continues to trouble India.
Now, the current President of Bangladesh, a Nobel Prize winner, has expressed a desire to assist China. However, he insists on first obtaining an official apology from Pakistan for the atrocities committed by Pakistani forces in 1971, including the mass rape of thousands of women. Many of these women later committed suicide.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi had planned to reinstate Sheikh Hasina as the head of Bangladesh. However, that plan may now need to be abandoned, adding to the Modi government’s challenges, as Hasina has long been considered a staunch ally of India.
Meanwhile China would also like to court the Bangladesh government to allow it a route to Yunnan province. This, however, may not be feasible with Hasina still in power.
Let’s see how events unfold.
