Even as the war has become the top subject of discussion on national TV in South India, there is much concern in the region about the impending delimitation of Lok Sabha seats, which could result in massive changes to the electoral process and an increase in the number of seats across the country. The current allocation is locked in, and there is pressure—mainly from South Indian states—to revisit and revise it.
The number of Lok Sabha seats stands at 543 and has remained unchanged since 1976. It was fixed at that number following representations by then Lok Sabha MP (later a minister in the Union government) Murasoli Maran, who argued that the tally should be frozen because the population in South Indian states like Madras (the old name for Tamil Nadu) had not grown as rapidly, thanks to more effective family planning practices. The count was originally frozen for 25 years, a period that was set to end in 2001.
As 2001 approached, Tamil Nadu pushed for an extension of the freeze for another 50 years. A Delimitation Commission established by the government then extended the moratorium accordingly. That extended period is now drawing to a close—meaning the door is open for a new delimitation exercise. Modi, the BJP, and those in power must now craft a process through which the number of Lok Sabha seats can be reassessed.
However, Modi and the BJP cannot initiate such changes unilaterally owing to the complexity of the procedure. The situation is further muddled by the absence of a national census in 2021. The key reason cited was the disruption of the population data collection infrastructure due to COVID. Consequently, the most recent census remains the one conducted in 2011.
The number of Lok Sabha seats has to be increased in 2026 or till the next census figures are available — likely in 2031, given the usual ten-year interval. But the latest figures available are that of 2011. It is thought that nobody would be agreeable to revise Lok Sabha seats based on population figures of 2011 in 2026 or beyond. In fact, opposition politicians allege that the whole exercise is conjured by those in power and designed to delay the revision of the number of Lok Sabha seats, thereby helping the ruling party maintain its position.
Regardless of these allegations, the situation has been further complicated by the Congress party’s ambiguous stance. Meanwhile, Modi and his allies are believed to be reaching out to Nara Chandrababu Naidu, assuming that he will resist any alteration in the Lok Sabha composition. Naidu and his contemporaries were among those affected by earlier delimitation efforts. In the late 1960s, when the number of seats was increased, Andhra Pradesh—like Tamil Nadu—saw a reduction in its parliamentary strength due to successful population control measures.
What Naidu will eventually decide remains unclear. However, it is likely that he will adopt an independent stance, considering the shifting political dynamics. Other political parties might too jump into the scene because of their own realities—for instance the BSP might have their own take because of their political compulsions and the Akali Dal and AAP in Punjab have other political compulsions.
Ultimately, the entire process could be a fun game, with parties taking a stand because of their own political realities. Naidu will now take a different political position because the realities on the ground are different for the Telugu Desam Party (TDP).
(Kingshuk Nag is a senior journalist who worked for TOI for 25 years in many cities including Delhi Mumbai Ahmedabad, Bangalore & Hyderabad. Known for his for fire brand journalism, he is also a biographer of Narendra Modi (The NaMo Story) and many others.)
