The impending immigration policies under Donald Trump, set to be sworn in as the 47th president of the United States, have significantly disrupted human smuggling networks. One notable outcome is the decline in the number of Indian nationals apprehended at the US-Mexico border, with December 2024 reflecting the first winter decrease in four years.
Traditionally, December is favoured by human traffickers owing to the month’s half-winter conditions, which provide natural cover for illegal crossings. However, data released by US Customs and Border Protection for the fiscal year 2025 reveals a striking drop in numbers: 5,629 Indian nationals were apprehended in December 2024, a reduction from 6,171 in November and 6,825 in October.
A source familiar with the inner workings of the human smuggling network shared insights about the seasonal dynamics to a national daily. The informer revealed that December and January often presented ideal conditions for border crossings from Canada because of the cold weather and snowy landscapes that conceal movement across the border. Nonetheless, this period is also perilous. For instance, in January 2022, four members of a family from Gandhinagar lost their lives to the harsh freezing conditions while attempting to cross the border after separating from a larger group of 17.
The ramifications of Trump’s election victory and his administration’s determination to crack down on illegal immigration have compelled human smugglers to reassess and ultimately abandon the previously established routes that included transit through Turkey, Mexico, and Dubai.
Instead, they have begun to rely more heavily on chartered flights to lesser-known island nations located closer to the United States, as well as the increasingly risky routes along the Canada-US border.
Despite a notable incident in which a chartered flight carrying Indians was intercepted in France in 2023, a source within the smuggling network indicated to the daily that chartered planes have retained their preference among human smugglers, illustrating the lengths to which traffickers are willing to go in response to evolving immigration policies and law enforcement strategies.
These shifts highlight the ongoing challenges and dangerous conditions faced by both the smuggling networks and those they transport.
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