Gujarat is reeling under one of its harshest early summer heat spells in recent years, with temperatures crossing 44°C in several regions and major cities like Ahmedabad and Rajkot remaining trapped in prolonged heatwave-like conditions. But meteorologists now warn this may only be the beginning of a far bigger climate crisis unfolding across India in 2026.
The India Meteorological Department’s latest data shows Surendranagar emerged as the hottest location in Gujarat at a scorching 44.5°C, followed closely by Rajkot at 43.5°C, Amreli at 43.3°C and Ahmedabad at 43.1°C. Vadodara climbed to 42.6°C while Surat, despite its coastal humidity, recorded an alarming 41.9°C — nearly 6.2°C above normal seasonal levels.
Across the state, inland Gujarat has effectively turned into a heat bowl. Bhuj, Deesa, Gandhinagar, Bhavnagar, Junagadh and Dang all crossed or approached the dangerous 40°C mark as dry winds and clear skies intensified the heat.
Only coastal belts such as Dwarka, Veraval and Porbandar experienced some relief due to maritime influence, though humidity remained high.
Gujarat’s Heat Is No Longer Seasonal — It Is Structural
What is increasingly worrying scientists is that Gujarat’s extreme heat is no longer being treated as an isolated summer event. It is becoming a recurring climate pattern.
Over the last decade, Gujarat has witnessed:
- Longer heatwaves
- Earlier onset of extreme summer
- Rising night temperatures
- Increased humidity stress in cities
- More frequent days above 43°C
- Delayed cooling even after sunset
Ahmedabad — once considered dangerously hot only during exceptional summers — now routinely experiences severe heatwaves almost every year. The city had already become a national warning sign after the deadly 2010 heatwave killed hundreds and pushed authorities to launch India’s first Heat Action Plan.
But climate scientists say the pace of warming is now accelerating faster than earlier predictions.
Why Gujarat Is Heating Up So Rapidly
Experts point to multiple overlapping causes.
Climate Change
Global warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions is increasing average temperatures worldwide. India is among the countries most vulnerable to extreme heat, and western India — particularly Gujarat and Rajasthan — is warming faster than many coastal or forested regions.
Heatwaves that were once considered “rare” are now becoming annual events.
Urban Heat Islands
Rapid urbanisation in Ahmedabad, Surat, Rajkot and Vadodara has worsened heat retention. Concrete roads, glass towers, shrinking tree cover and dense traffic trap heat throughout the day and slowly release it at night, preventing temperatures from cooling naturally.
This “urban heat island” effect is making cities significantly hotter than surrounding rural areas.
Dry Weather and Weak Pre-Monsoon Activity
Usually, occasional thunderstorms and pre-monsoon showers in May provide temporary cooling. This year, however, Gujarat has recorded almost no meaningful rainfall activity.
Dry air, low cloud cover and intense solar radiation are pushing temperatures higher every day.
Hot Winds From North-West India
Meteorologists say powerful dry winds from Rajasthan and adjoining arid regions are currently sweeping into Gujarat, rapidly increasing daytime temperatures across Saurashtra, north Gujarat and central districts.
Now Comes The Bigger Threat: Super El Niño
As Gujarat battles immediate heatwave conditions, scientists are warning that an emerging “Super El Niño” event in the Pacific Ocean could dramatically worsen India’s climate situation later this year.
The IMD has already forecast below-normal monsoon rainfall for 2026, with the southwest monsoon expected to reach only 92% of the long-period average. More alarmingly, there is now a 35% probability of deficient rainfall — more than double the historical average risk.
Meteorologists say the reason is the rapid formation of what may become one of the strongest El Niño events in decades.
What Is El Niño?
El Niño is a climate phenomenon caused by abnormal warming of waters in the central Pacific Ocean. Though it occurs thousands of kilometres away, it disrupts atmospheric circulation across the globe — particularly India’s monsoon system.
Normally, monsoon winds carry moisture from oceans toward India. But during strong El Niño years, these monsoon currents weaken, leading to:
- Lower rainfall
- Longer dry spells
- More heatwaves
- Higher drought risk
- Crop damage
- Water shortages
Scientists monitoring Pacific temperatures say the warming is happening unusually quickly this year. Some global climate models are already projecting sea surface anomalies above 2°C — the threshold for what meteorologists classify as a “Super El Niño.”
If temperatures cross 2.5°C, the event could rival devastating climate years such as 1997 and 2015.
Which Parts of India Face Danger?
The impact of El Niño is uneven — and potentially devastating.
High Drought Risk Zones
Northern, western and central India are expected to face the highest risk of deficient rainfall.
Regions under concern include:
- Gujarat
- Rajasthan
- Punjab
- Haryana
- Delhi-NCR
- Maharashtra’s Marathwada region
- Parts of Madhya Pradesh
For Gujarat, this could mean:
- Water scarcity
- Falling reservoir levels
- Agricultural stress
- Higher electricity demand
- More severe heatwaves through August and September
Farmers in Saurashtra and north Gujarat may be particularly vulnerable if monsoon rainfall weakens during the crucial sowing period.
Flood Risk Zones
Ironically, El Niño can also trigger excessive rainfall in parts of southern and eastern India.
Chennai and coastal Tamil Nadu are considered especially vulnerable to flooding during strong El Niño years. Similar flood risks may emerge across some eastern coastal regions.
Lessons From Earlier El Niño Years
India has experienced the devastating effects of strong El Niño events before.
2015-16 Super El Niño
One of the worst recent events caused:
- Severe drought across multiple states
- Massive rainfall deficits
- Farmer distress and crop failure
- Reservoir depletion
- Chennai floods that submerged large parts of the city
Marathwada alone suffered rainfall deficits exceeding 40%.
2023 El Niño
India saw a 36% rainfall deficit in August 2023, badly affecting Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha and Chhattisgarh.
Experts warn 2026 could be even more severe if the current Pacific warming continues intensifying.
Gujarat’s Future: Hotter, Drier, More Extreme
Climate experts increasingly believe Gujarat may become one of India’s most heat-stressed states in coming decades because of its geography, urbanisation and growing water pressures.
The combination of:
- Rising temperatures
- Erratic monsoons
- Declining groundwater
- Expanding cities
- Industrial heat generation
- Climate-driven weather extremes
could fundamentally alter how people live and work across the state.
Outdoor workers, farmers, construction labourers, delivery workers and low-income urban populations are expected to bear the harshest burden.
Meteorologists say the coming weeks will be crucial. If pre-monsoon rainfall remains weak and El Niño intensifies further by July-August, Gujarat could face one of its most difficult climate seasons in recent memory.
For now, the state remains trapped under an unforgiving sky — one scientists warn may represent not an anomaly, but the future normal.
Also Read: Ahmedabad Temperature Exceeds 44°C For Three Days Straight https://www.vibesofindia.com/ahmedabad-temperature-exceeds-44c-for-three-days-straight/
