What happens when a farmer spends thousands of rupees growing a crop but cannot earn enough from selling it to recover the money invested? For many cotton growers in Gujarat, this is becoming a difficult reality.
Cotton, which was once an important source of income for farmers across the state, is increasingly turning into a financial burden. The problem is not just that market prices have fallen. The cost of growing the crop has also gone up. Seeds, fertilisers and agricultural labour are becoming more expensive, leaving farmers with higher bills and lower returns.
By the time the harvested cotton reaches the market, many farmers are worried that the money they receive may not even cover what they spent on cultivation. And when a crop stops giving farmers a reasonable return, the consequences do not end with one season’s losses. It affects their ability to repay loans, manage household expenses and arrange money for the next crop.
Government data shows how much the average model price of cotton has changed over the past four years.
According to figures from the Union Ministry of Agriculture, the average model price stood at ₹8,829 per quintal in 2022–23. By 2025–26, it had come down to ₹7,249.
That is a fall of ₹1,580 per quintal.
The sharpest drop came in 2023–24, when the average price fell to ₹7,038 per quintal. There was a small recovery in the next two years, but it has not been enough to bring prices anywhere close to the 2022–23 level.
The figures show a gradual improvement after the sharp fall, but farmers are still facing a significant gap between what cotton was worth in 2022–23 and what it is fetching now.
A lower selling price would already be difficult for farmers to manage. But the bigger worry is that their expenses have not fallen along with market prices.
Farmers have to spend money on seeds, fertilisers and labour before they can even think about selling their produce. These costs add up, and thousands of rupees may go into cultivating just one acre of land.
The problem becomes clear when the crop is finally sold. If the amount received is lower than the money spent on growing it, the farmer is left with a loss despite having completed an entire season of hard work.
Farmers also complain that government procurement has not been adequate. They allege that some traders are acting together in ways that affect the prices offered in the market. They further argue that the support prices available to them do not adequately cover their actual cultivation expenses.
These are serious concerns because a farmer cannot simply stop spending money on a crop once cultivation has begun. Seeds have to be bought, fields have to be prepared and labour has to be paid. But there is no guarantee that the final sale will bring enough money back.
The financial pressure is being felt particularly by cotton-growing farmers in Saurashtra and North Gujarat.
Many farmers have borrowed money from cooperative societies and banks to continue cultivation. When cotton does not fetch a reasonable price, repaying those loans becomes another challenge.
The situation is made worse by losses caused by natural disasters and the rising cost of farming. Farmers are therefore dealing with several financial pressures at the same time: higher expenses, uncertain returns and existing debt.
A poor return from one crop can affect the next season as well. Farmers who are unable to repay their previous loans may find it difficult to arrange fresh funds for cultivation. They also have household expenses to manage, which cannot simply be put on hold until cotton prices improve.
This is where the problem becomes bigger than the cotton market.
When farmers do not earn enough to recover their investment, they have to think twice before putting the same amount of money into another season. Some may struggle to arrange funds, while others may be forced to reconsider how much land they can cultivate or whether they should continue growing cotton.
The financial pressure raises an important question: how long can farmers continue investing in a crop that is no longer giving them adequate returns?
The effects could extend beyond farming families. Cotton cultivation is connected to a wider chain of economic activity, and uncertainty over the next cropping season can create difficulties for everyone who depends on a steady supply of the crop.
It is easy to look at falling cotton prices as an issue limited to farmers and agricultural markets. But agriculture affects the lives of people far beyond villages and farms.
Farmers produce the crops that support many parts of the economy. When they struggle to recover their production costs, the problem raises questions about the future of cultivation, rural incomes and the stability of agricultural supply chains.
Cotton may still be growing in Gujarat’s fields, but for many farmers, the question is whether growing it is still worth the investment.
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