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Vibes Of India
Vibes Of India

BJP Poised for Victory in Delhi Assembly Elections, Exit Polls Predict

| Updated: February 5, 2025 20:19

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which has struggled in recent Delhi Assembly elections, is set to return to power in the national capital after a 27-year hiatus, according to a majority of exit polls released on Wednesday. 

This prediction marks a significant setback for the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and its leader Arvind Kejriwal, who stepped down as Chief Minister last year amid corruption charges. The Congress, which has been largely absent from Delhi’s political scene since Sheila Dikshit’s tenure, is predicted to win just 1-2 seats.

An average of four exit polls indicates the BJP, riding on victories in Haryana and Maharashtra, is likely to secure 42 seats, well above the halfway mark of 36 required to form the government. The AAP, which dominated the 2015 and 2020 elections, is expected to drop to just 25 seats.

PMarq’s prediction for the BJP ranges between 39 and 49 seats, with the AAP expected to secure 21 to 31 seats. Times Now JVC forecasts 39 to 45 seats for the BJP and 22 to 31 seats for the AAP. 

The People’s Pulse poll has been the most optimistic for the BJP, predicting between 51 and 60 seats, while projecting 10 to 19 seats for the AAP. Matrize, however, forecasts a closer contest, predicting 35 to 40 seats for the BJP and 32 to 37 seats for the AAP. 

Mind Brink stands apart, predicting a victory for the AAP with between 44 and 49 seats for the party and 21 to 25 seats for the BJP.

While the exit polls suggest a favourable outcome for the BJP, they come with the caveat that such predictions can often be inaccurate. The final results may differ significantly from these forecasts.

BJP Delhi unit chief Virendra Sachdeva commented on the projections, stating, “AAP-da (disaster) is leaving,” a phrase coined by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to describe the AAP’s expected defeat. 

Despite the polls, the AAP has expressed confidence, with party leader Reena Gupta insisting that the AAP would “register a historic victory” and that Kejriwal would become Chief Minister for a fourth term.

Gupta further remarked, “You look at any exit poll historically, AAP is always given a smaller number of seats, whether it’s 2013, 2015, or 2020. But whatever is shown, AAP gets a lot greater number of seats in reality. AAP will register a historic victory.”

Analysts believe the BJP’s success may have been aided by the Congress, which is thought to have weakened AAP’s support base among Muslim and Dalit voters, thereby benefiting the BJP. The exit polls also suggest that the BJP has made inroads in jhuggi clusters and unauthorised colonies, key voter bases that helped AAP in 2015 and 2020.

Additionally, the BJP’s and PM Modi’s strong attacks on the AAP, particularly regarding the alleged liquor policy scam and the “Sheesh Mahal” controversy, appear to have resonated with voters. 

The “Sheesh Mahal” row centres around allegations that Kejriwal spent crores on luxurious renovations to his official residence during the Covid-19 pandemic.

If the BJP wins in Delhi, the results could have wider implications for the upcoming elections in Bihar, where a large portion of voters belong to the Purvanchali community, many of whom hail from eastern Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. The Delhi election results are likely to provide insight into the political mood in Bihar ahead of its elections later this year.

The final outcome will be determined on February 8, when the votes are counted.

(Note: Exit polls are NOT exact polls)

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