The India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced on Tuesday that a depression forming over the southeast Arabian Sea, near Gujarat’s Porbandar, is projected to move northwestward and strengthen into a cyclonic storm.
According to the bulletin issued by the Met office, as of 5:30 am, the depression was situated approximately 920 km west-southwest of Goa, 1,120 km south-southwest of Mumbai, 1,160 km south of Porbandar, and 1,520 km south of Karachi, Pakistan.
The IMD further stated that the depression is expected to continue its northward track and intensify into a cyclonic storm within the next 24 hours over the east-central Arabian Sea and the adjoining southeast Arabian Sea.
In an earlier announcement on Monday, the IMD had highlighted the formation of a low-pressure system in the southeast Arabian Sea and its potential impact on the progress of the monsoon towards the Kerala coast. However, the specific date for the monsoon’s arrival in Kerala was not provided. Skymet Weather, a private forecasting agency, predicted that the onset of the monsoon in Kerala could occur on either June 8 or June 9, although it anticipated a relatively mild and gradual initiation.
The presence of these strong weather systems in the Arabian Sea can impede the inland advancement of the monsoon. As a result, while the monsoon flow may reach coastal areas, it may encounter difficulties in penetrating beyond the Western Ghats, as explained by Skymet Weather. The agency had previously forecasted the monsoon’s onset in Kerala to be around June 7, with a margin of error of three days.
Skymet Weather further elaborated that the monsoon is likely to fall within the expected timeframe, meeting the criteria of consecutive days of rainfall in Lakshadweep, Kerala, and coastal Karnataka. However, the onset is anticipated to be relatively subdued, making a modest entry initially.
As the depression progresses and intensifies into a cyclonic storm, it will be closely monitored by meteorological agencies to assess its potential impact on weather conditions and the progression of the monsoon across the region.