A new international weather forecast has raised concerns about this year’s monsoon in India. According to the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), many parts of the country could receive below-average rainfall between July and September if the developing El Niño continues to strengthen.
The forecast suggests that western and central India may be the most affected. Gujarat is among the states that could see a significant drop in rainfall. Parts of Maharashtra, including the Konkan region and Goa, may also receive 100 to 200 mm less rain than usual.
This prediction has created worries because the southwest monsoon plays a major role in India’s agriculture and water supply. Farmers depend on seasonal rainfall for their crops, while reservoirs and dams rely on the monsoon to store water for the rest of the year.
Weather experts say that the changing conditions are linked to the development of El Niño, a natural climate phenomenon caused by unusual warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. This warming often weakens the monsoon system over India. Scientists use the term “Godzilla El Niño” for exceptionally strong El Niño events that can significantly affect weather patterns around the world.
Preliminary data for June 2026 show that warming in the Pacific Ocean is becoming stronger. This could reduce the strength of the moisture-bearing monsoon winds that bring rain to India.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has also projected that rainfall during the June to September season could be around 90-92% of the long-period average, placing it in the “below normal” category.
Experts warn that a weak monsoon could have a major impact on agriculture. Kharif crops such as paddy, cotton, pulses, soybean and oilseeds depend heavily on monsoon rainfall. If rainfall is lower than expected, crop production may be affected, farming costs could rise and food prices may increase.
There are also concerns about water availability. A long period of low rainfall could reduce water storage in reservoirs and dams, affecting irrigation in rural areas and increasing pressure on drinking water supplies in cities.
At the same time, experts have said that seasonal forecasts made weeks before the peak monsoon period can change and should not be treated as final predictions. They also noted that rainfall may not be the same across the country, with some eastern and northern regions expected to perform better than western and central India.
Meteorologists have advised governments and farmers to strengthen water conservation efforts, encourage drought-resilient crops and improve irrigation planning in case rainfall remains below normal.
The developing El Niño could also affect weather in other parts of the world. Experts say Australia, Indonesia and parts of South-East Asia may experience drier conditions, while some areas of South America could receive excessive rainfall and flooding.
Climate researchers have also warned that disruptions to agricultural production in major producing regions may affect global supplies of products such as coffee, sugar, cocoa and palm oil.
Since India has experienced weaker monsoon seasons during strong El Niño years in the past, meteorological agencies and policymakers are closely monitoring the situation ahead of the crucial monsoon months.
Also Read: Early Monsoon Effect! Mumbai Breaks 107-Year May Rain Record https://www.vibesofindia.com/early-monsoon-effect-mumbai-breaks-107-year-may-rain-record/
