In what is a marked shift in the strategic calculus of South Asia’s diplomacy, India has placed the Indus Water treaty “in abeyance”.
Following the terrorist attack in Jammu and Kashmir, reportedly perpetrated by Pakistan-based militants, India has effectively halted its obligations under the agreement, including sharing of hydrological data, consultation on new projects, and meetings between Indus Commissioners.
The treaty, which includes no clause allowing unilateral suspension and withstood periods of intense political and military tension since 1960, granted Pakistan access to the bulk of the Indus system’s waters—an average annual flow of approximately 135 million acre-feet from the western rivers: the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab.
Now that the Indus Waters Treaty is invalid, India is no longer obliged to engage in consultations with Pakistan before constructing dams along the Indus River. According to reports, the same has been communicated to Pakistani officials via a letter. India’s Water Resources Secretary, Debashree Mukherjee, has said that ongoing cross-border terrorism from Pakistan which has repeatedly targeted the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir, has compromised India’s ability to exercise its rights under the treaty.
“The obligation to honour a treaty in good faith is fundamental to a treaty. However, what we have seen instead is sustained cross-border terrorism by Pakistan targeting the Indian Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir,” the letter read.
Pakistan has reacted to India’s suspension of the Indus Water Treaty, and in a veiled threat has said that the pact will be perceived as an act of war. The Pakistani troops fired at Indian positions along the Line of Control on Thursday night and India responded appropriately, albeit with small arms. No casualties were reported in the firing, according to reports.
The annulling of the Indus Water Treaty is a major blow to Pakistan’s crippled agricultural economy. Analysts have estimated that India’s decision will curtail water flows during critical sowing and harvest periods, jeopardising livelihoods across large swathes of India’s neighbours.
Along with the immediate closure of the Attari land transit post and Obroi post, the cancellation of visas for Pakistani nationals, the expulsion of Pakistani military attacks, and the reduction of diplomatic missions, the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty was one of several punitive measures taken against Pakistan. Pakistan retaliated by announcing shutting its airspace to all Indian airlines and suspended trade with New Delhi, including through third countries.
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